April 22, 2008

Unless something startling occurs, 2008 is shaping up to be one of the least eventful election seasons in years. The Honolulu Mayor appears to be coasting to his re-election, the Congressional Delegation is mostly safe, there’s no Governors’ or U.S. Senate Race, and neither the State Senate or State House are going to change hands.
There are, however, a few hot races to participate in.

President of the United States: With 37,000 people waiting in line for hours to vote on February 19 and roughly ten times the turnout from 2004, Hawaii Democrats rode a tidal wave. This momentum and excitement will likely persist through the General Election, and both political parties would be wise to use the Presidential race to identify and organize supporters. And remember, Hawaii was carried by Ronald Reagan.

Constitutional Convention: Voting yes or no on a Constitutional Convention is the most significant vote that you will cast this year. It’s simple; you either think that the Constitution of the State of Hawaii should be totally overhauled, or you don’t. And that ought to depend on what’s in the document. Some proponents will argue that this is a way to circumvent a legislature that they don’t like and create a broad framework for change, but I think that’s a stretch. My recommendation is that everyone actually read the darned thing (or at least talk to someone who has) before they form an opinion.

Big Island Mayor: There are several talented candidates in this race, and they all have their regional, demographic, and resume-related strengths. From former Mayor and current State Senator Lorraine Inouye, whose long record of service and government experience will be an asset, to Bill Kenoi, the smart, young, passionate member of Harry Kim’s cabinet who appears to be catching on, to Council Member Angel Pilago, who has island-wide grassroots enthusiasm, especially among environmental organizers, the outcome of this race is anyone’s guess, but what happens here will be an indication of how the Big Island will develop politically over the next eight years.

Senate Races to Watch:
Former Democratic Party Chair Brickwood Galuteria is taking on incumbent Republican Senator Gordon Trimble. Brick’s a big name, but Trimble pounds the pavement in this swing district relatively effectively. This race will be hard fought, well financed on both sides, and might be won by a few hundred votes.
Labor lawyer and grassroots politician (and my former colleague in the House,) Dwight Takamine, has a serious challenge for a State Senate seat in lawyer, professor, and former Democrat Ted Hong. This one is fascinating because the district is the Hamakua Coast, the heart of labor and the Democratic Party. If Ted Hong, a well know advocate for management, does well against Dwight Takamine, a proud and effective labor fighter, it will give Democrats reason to worry.

The races that probably won’t happen: If Mufi Hanneman doesn’t get a serious challenger, it will be the first time that an incumbent Mayor of Honolulu doesn’t have a serious re-election fight in decades. State Senate Majority Leader Gary Hooser does a solid job of advocating for his Kauai constituents, so his re-election should be a breeze, as should be the reelection for the powerful and persuasive Senate President Colleen Hanabusa. If any of these elected officials see a serious challenge, things could get exciting in a hurry.

But until then, enjoy reading the State Constitution – it can be found at http://hawaii.gov/lrb/con/.

Brian Schatz