March 11, 2008

A delegate is simply a person that represents another person or group. The Democratic Party has two types of delegates. The first type of delegate is called a Pledged Delegate. Pledged Delegates are elected or selected assuming that they will support a specific candidate at the Democratic National Convention. Pledged Delegates are not legally bound to support that candidate. However, if they are perceived as being disloyal, their delegate status can be removed. This capability tends to reinforce the delegates’ commitment. The number of Pledged Delegates that a candidate receives is based on the proportion of votes they received in that state's primary election. A minimum of 15% of the votes cast must be received by a candidate in order to receive any Pledged Delegates at all.

The other type of delegate is called a Superdelegate.

Today we hear more about Superdelegates than ever before. When discussing the Democratic party and Superdelegates, we are talking about SuperDemocrats, the Big Dogs of the Democratic party. The list of Superdelegates includes all former Democratic Presidents and Vice Presidents, Democratic governors, senators, representatives, distinguished party members, Democratic National Committee members, former National Chairmen, Democratic organizations, members-at-large and others. Where the Superdelegates may weigh heavy is in the possibility that they could select the next Democratic Presidential candidate. Superdelegates are not required to commit to a particular candidate, and their delegate status is not subject to removal via candidate preferences. Altogether, there are an estimated 796 Superdelegates.

These 796 Superdelegates plus the 3,253 delegates representing the states combine for a total of 4,049 total delegate votes. Senator Clinton or Senator Obama must capture a minimum 2,025 of these combined votes to gain a majority, and the Democratic nomination for President of the United States of America.

Herein lies the Superdelegate challenge: it is theoretically possible that either one of the candidates could get 62.22% or 2,024 votes - one vote short of the majority - from state delegates, versus 37.78% or 1,229 votes for their opponent and still lose the nomination. This would occur if 100%, or 796 super delegate votes are cast for the opponent with only 37.78% or 1,229 state delegate votes. If a candidate receives any number of votes less than 2,025, the Superdelegates could choose the candidate that has received a minority of the state delegates’ votes. These state delegates are ostensibly representing the will of their constituents. Therefore, a Superdelegate vote that would nominate a minority vote-carrying candidate is seen as going against the will of the people.

The risk of a Superdelegate vote deciding the Democratic nominee rises the tighter the race gets. As of late, Senator Barack Obama has been on a streak of wins. This momentum has led a number of delegates to switch their committed votes from Clinton to Obama.

The most notable of these defections, as of late February, is Representative John Lewis from Georgia. Representative Lewis was caught between a rock and a hard place. John Lewis had originally committed his Superdelegate vote to Senator Clinton. Meanwhile, voters from Congressman Lewis’ fifth district, which includes Atlanta, cast a prodigious amount of votes for Senator Obama. Congressman Lewis’ switch certainly took these facts into careful consideration, as he must still prepare for re-election at the end of his two-year term. Although his Superdelegate status cannot be removed from him while in office, the possibility of a backlash from his constituents in the next congressional election is a reality. Other Superdelegates will not necessarily face such challenges.

One explanation for Senator Clintons' early lead in committed Superdelegate votes could have had to do with her husband. Not only is former President Clinton a Superdelegate; many other Superdelegates were part of the Clinton administration. The Clinton years are widely viewed as a prosperous time for America and the Democratic party. Many of the Superdelegates, such as Al Gore, benefited from this prosperous time and were perhaps expected to pay back in kind. However, once again, the momentum of Senator Barack Obama's campaign is causing a movement among the delegates. Such is the nature of politics and human nature. All the Superdelegates want to be part of a winning team and many of them want to make sure they get re-elected.

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Jonas Holmes III