North Korea detonated something, probably something nuclear, underground on Oct. 9. Within a few hours after the blast, Russia said it was “100% certain” a nuclear test had been carried out and measured it at between five to 15 kilotons.
But South Korea, France and the U.S. have all measured it at less than one kiloton, far smaller than the 12.5 kiloton bomb that was dropped on Hiroshima in WWII.
Whatever the size. world consensus is that North Korea detonated a nuclear bomb as it claims. Was the explosion a failure or even a fake?
As scientists around the world examine the sketchy information about the blast, legislators search for a response, an appropriate retaliation, and aim sanctions at the desolate country ruled by the autocratic Kim Jong II. But for Hawaii residents one vital question remains: does North Korea have the capabilities of getting a nuclear missile to our islands?
There are several reasons Oahu might be a prime target, especially for a despotic leader bent on making a statement against the U.S. After all, the island is filled with military bases and personnel. It includes Pearl Harbor, an icon of American military power. And all of the islands are symbols of vacation fun, wealthy hedonism.
A recent Washington Post story quotes a scientist who prefers to remain anonymous to protect his job. He says North Korea, according to U.S. intelligence estimates, has enough plutonium for as many as a dozen nuclear weapons, depending on their level of sophistication. Some analysts have judged Pyongyang’s technical capabilities in the nuclear design field to be at a low level. But there are now discussions among top U.S. weapons scientists and analysts whether North Korea may have managed to test a miniaturized warhead or a more sophisticated design than was expected.
It is a scenerio too frightening to even conceive. But at least one Oahu resident is worried about living so close to a potential target.
“It bothers me that I’m so close to Pearl Harbor,” said Alex Storm, an Oahu resident who lives in Makiki, a neighborhood above Pearl Harbor. “If I was on the Big Island, it wouldn’t bother me as much because the fallout wouldn’t hit there ... probably.
“Right now, I think there’s enough to actually worry about than to worry about what might happen couple of years down the road,” said Storm in an Interview on Channel 5.
The words of Jon Goldberg-Hiller, Ph.D., department chair in the Department of Political Science at the University of Hawaii, hold some comfort.
“There is no possibility of nuclear attack that I see,” Goldberg-Hiller says.
“There has been a very deceptive image of (North Korean leader) Kim Jong II as a madman, but I think this makes much less sense than the alternatives: that he has few means of establishing security both inside his country or internationally without militarization.
“Building a bomb and letting the world know that he has one is really quite rational in the present international context: the U.S. will not establish bilateral discussions with him, he has been labeled one third of an axis of evil, and invasions of this axis (Iraq) have occurred.”
We asked Goldberg-Hiller what would happen in Maui if a nuclear bomb were aimed at, say, Oahu. What would be the effects?
“If the bomb aimed at us were as strong as that tested in North Korea, we would likely have limited damage. By many appearances the North Korean bomb was not very impressive, and likely still not technologically refined,” he says.
“But again, it is the threat of the bomb that makes more of a political difference, not the fact of its use. The fear that you hear around you is the bomb already working—this is what Kim wants because it gives him the attention that he believes his country needs. Making the bomb blow up means the strategy failed. But by no means is this the likely outcome of failed policy.”
Goldberg-Hiller believes the entire threat might have been avoided.
“I think there is little possibility that Kim would have done this had the Bush administration been talking to him all along. This is the tactic of someone who is completely isolated. The willingness of Bush to isolate countries such as North Korea and Iran breeds more danger in the world than the fact of another country with nuclear weapons,” the UH professor concludes.